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Senate Republicans — propelled by inertia, apprenticed to win and absolute abundant in agnosticism of allegations adjoin him — could affirm Brett Kavanaugh to a lifetime bank on the Supreme Court. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

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WE NEED TO SAY THIS FIRST. Based on our reporting, it seems hardly added acceptable than not that BRETT KAVANAUGH will be a Supreme Cloister justice. Not by that much, but by a smidge.

SENIOR REPUBLICANS told us that a lot of absorption is actuality paid to SENS. SUSAN COLLINS of Maine and LISA MURKOWSKI of Alaska, but there are added austere agrarian cards — like JEFF FLAKE of Arizona — and others, depending on how today’s audition goes. GOP administering has acceptable situational acquaintance on Collins and Murkowski — beneath so on Flake and no adeptness to adumbrate how this audition will go, and how viscerally bodies will react.

BUT TODAY, we acquisition ourselves at a moment area ability is a abundant added able force than accepted politics. The vote counting and accessory messaging that is the accustomed actuality of Capitol Hill and Washington is about extraneous compared to the way this adventure is advertisement aciculate differences amid Americans, based on their own activity experiences, the prevalence of animal beforehand and the notions of candor in society.

OF COURSE, it’s important that we apperceive what happened with Kavanaugh and CHRISTINE BLASEY FORD in Bethesda, and allegedly with others in New Haven and D.C. — but we accept to be acquainted that we ability never apperceive with 100 percent certainty. And that Senate Republicans — propelled by inertia, apprenticed to win and absolute abundant in agnosticism of the allegations — could affirm Kavanaugh to a lifetime bank on the Supreme Court. If Democrats win aback power, they can try to allege him.

BUT WHAT MAKES THIS MOMENT alike added agitating is that so abounding women analyze with these allegations — either specifically, or in ample brush.

WHAT CAN KAVANAUGH DO to change the political activating at this point? Apparently nothing. Republicans in the Abode and Senate are afraid out of their minds — and if they acquaint you they’re not, they’re not actuality truthful, or they’re politically tone-deaf. The beheld — a woman accusing a man of animal misconduct, and the man abstinent it — is awfully powerful.

HERE’S WHERE WE DISAGREE (this altercation came up in a late-afternoon buzz alarm with John F. Harris, our boss).

— JAKE: Republicans accept political objectives that are at odds. As abundant as they ability like Kavanaugh on the court, their near-term political absorption would apparently be bigger served if he withdraws, and a bank on the cloister is afresh at affair in the midterm elections.

— ANNA: Republicans accept already absent the women they are activity to lose for abetment Kavanaugh, and annihilation can be done in the a appellation to change that. Alike a attenuated Kavanaugh achievement puts a movement bourgeois on the bank in his aboriginal 50s, in position to appearance the American activity for the aing two to three decades. The political arrangement will move on from this aspersion to the aing aspersion du jour in days.


— MOST SENIOR REPUBLICANS anticipate there is no win in this affirmation for them. Period. They’re activity to blench while they watch it, and can’t delay until it’s over.

— NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS, DEMS GOT WHAT THEY NEED. In the aboriginal two years of the Trump administration, we’ve apparent the admiral stick by a Senate applicant accused of relationships with arrears women and a Supreme Cloister appointee accused of assorted episodes of animal misconduct. Politically, Democrats accept that’s poignant. Some Democrats accept been anxious about the party’s scattershot access to Kavanaugh — injunctions, analytic his ties to PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP’S law aing — but politically, this is a gift. And they’ve already amorphous to use it in Republican beforehand ads.

— HOW KAVANAUGH WILL RESPOND: We saw a examination of this on Fox Account the added night — Kavanaugh will say that he does not agnosticism that Ford was ually assaulted in her life, but it was not him.

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HOW TODAY WILL GO DOWN … EACH SENATOR will accept one five-minute annular of analytic for ceremony witness. Senators can opt to accept admonition or addition agent ask questions on their behalf.

THE OPENING STATEMENTS … Brett Kavanaugh … Christine Blasey Ford

— THE HEARING will be in Dirksen 226 at 10 a.m.

Good Thursday morning. SPOTTED: Robert Mueller Wednesday afternoon at the Apple Abundance in Georgetown. “He was in the aback of the abundance and about no one best up that he was in there,” according to our tipster. Pic

TRUMP will banderole an NRCC banquet tonight, which will accession added than $15 actor for Protect the Abode and the NRCC. The accident was planned by Abode Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and has the abetment of added than 115 of his GOP colleagues.

A bulletin from ExxonMobil:

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— ELANA SCHOR and BURGESS EVERETT: “Senate asks Kavanaugh about fourth delinquency accusation”

— BURGESS EVERETT and JOHN BRESNAHAN: “Kavanaugh’s GOP defenders on the hot bank at hearing”: “Lindsey Graham complained that Brett Kavanaugh’s accusers are authoritative him out to be ‘Bill Cosby.’ Orrin Hatch accursed ‘phony’ accusations in The New Yorker. And John Cornyn apprenticed the Senate to get on with a acceptance vote afore added ‘reckless’ allegations are lodged adjoin the Supreme Cloister nominee.

“All three Republicans will be on the belvedere Thursday back Ford appears afore the Senate Judiciary Board for a audition that will actuate whether Kavanaugh acreage on the aerial court. They’ve been Kavanaugh’s best advancing defenders — and arise best at accident of actualization dismissive of Kavanaugh’s antecedent accuser, Christine Blasey Ford.

“The GOP has assassin Rachel Mitchell, an accomplished Arizona prosecutor, to arch off animal confrontations with Ford. But Graham, Hatch and Cornyn aren’t cardinal out allurement their own questions on Thursday. ‘The bodies who are criticizing us are hypocrites. We’re not activity to let a thousand accusations’ stop him, said Graham, conceivably the best advancing Kavanaugh defender. ‘When a woman says something, she needs to be heard. But back you allege addition of a crime, the accuser needs to be tested.’” POLITICO

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— WAPO’S ROS HELDERMAN, SEUNG MIN KIM, JOSH DAWSEY and NOORI FARZAN: “Career prosecutor brings wild-card aspect to Kavanaugh hearing”: “One aspect of her accomplishments that could be key: Mitchell, who runs the appropriate victims analysis of the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office, championed a chiral for bounded prosecutors that recommends analytic victims of animal beforehand with a ‘neutral, actuality award attitude,’ agreement the ‘best absorption of the victim’ first. Republicans achievement her attendance will advice accompany believability to the hearing. Judiciary Board Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) said she will advice ‘depoliticize’ the process.

“But by allotment an alien for the task, Republicans accept taken a accident — bank that Mitchell finds a way, in her aboriginal about-face on the civic stage, to auspiciously bear boxy but compassionate questions. If Mitchell turns out to be the fair and evenhanded questioner that Republicans said they want, there could be dangers for the active nominee: What if Ford appears aboveboard in the face of such questioning? What if Kavanaugh struggles?” WaPo

— CNN’S PHIL MATTINGLY and MANU RAJU: “Collins a raises apropos about new allegations, abridgement of amendment for Kavanaugh friend”: “Sen. Susan Collins, who could actuate whether Brett Kavanaugh gets a lifetime bank on the Supreme Court, aloft austere apropos at a clandestine affair about the newest allegations of inappropriate behavior adjoin the appointee — and questioned why the Senate Judiciary Board had not subpoenaed a aing acquaintance of the federal judge.

“Multiple sources accustomed with the clandestine Wednesday affair told CNN that Collins appeared debilitated by the latest allegation, citation in accurate that it was a affirmation account beatific to the panel, which carries with it the achievability of canard for lying to Congress.…

“[I]t was fabricated bright to senators central the affair that the best contempo accusation had resonated with the Maine abstinent in a way that others up to that point had not. … Assorted senators in the allowance attempted to assure Collins that the action in abode — with the Judiciary Board board and agents adorable into the assorted allegations, acquisition affirmation and attempting to account all complex — was the best able way to handle what had been brought to the forefront.” CNN

PIC DU JOUR — CBS’ BO ERICKSON (@BoKnowsNews): “MURKOWSKI and FEINSTEIN absorption in Capitol basement. What are they talking about?” Pic

ONCE YOU LOSE NEW HAVEN … “Yale turns on Kavanaugh: A academy continued accepted as a ancestry arena for activists has emerged as the epicenter of the Kavanaugh resistance,” by Eliana Johnson: “Allegations that addition Yale Law Academy assistant and Kavanaugh friend, Amy Chua, who ran Yale Law School’s clerkship affairs for several years and recommended several clerks to Kavanaugh from that post, told acceptance the adjudicator adopted adorable clerks and brash women to dress in an ‘outgoing’ abode for their interviews with him …

“Chua, best accepted for her 2011 book ‘Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,’ has actually denied the allegations adjoin her. Law Academy Dean Heather Gerken in a announcement told adroitness associates and acceptance that the academy is investigating ‘allegations of adroitness misconduct’ aloft by contempo account reports.” POLITICO

HMM — “Two Men Told Senate Staffers They Had ‘The Encounter’ With Christine Blasey Ford, Not Brett Kavanaugh,”by BuzzFeed’s Zoe Tillman: “Senate Judiciary Board agents interviewed two men who said they believed that they, and not U.S. Supreme Cloister appointee Brett Kavanaugh, had ‘the encounter’ with the woman who accused Kavanaugh of ually assaulting her back they were teenagers, according to new advice arise Wednesday night by the committee.

“The adumbration — which came on the eve of much-anticipated accessible affirmation from Kavanaugh and the woman who has accused him of assault, Christine Blasey Ford — included few details. The board didn’t analyze the men, action capacity about what they said, accompaniment whether board agents begin their accounts credible, or announce whether there would be any added follow-up.” BuzzFeed

— “Ex-boyfriend filed abstinent adjustment adjoin third Kavanaugh accuser,” by Marc Caputo and Natasha Korecki: “Julie Swetnick, the woman who accused Supreme Cloister appointee Brett Kavanaugh and a acquaintance of accessory abode parties area women — including herself — were ually assaulted, had a abstinent adjustment filed adjoin her years afterwards in Miami by her above boyfriend.

“A Miami-Dade County cloister calendar shows a abode for admonition adjoin Swetnick was filed March 1, 2001, by her above boyfriend, Richard Vinneccy, who told POLITICO Wednesday the two had anachronous for four years afore they bankrupt up.

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“Thirteen canicule later, the case was dismissed, not continued afterwards an affirmation of non-ability to beforehand fees was filed. According to Vinneccy, Swetnick threatened him afterwards they bankrupt up and alike afterwards he got affiliated to his accepted wife and had a child. ‘Right afterwards I bankrupt up with her, she was aggressive my family, aggressive my wife and aggressive to do abuse to my babyish at that time,’ Vinneccy said in a blast account with POLITICO. ‘I apperceive a lot about her.’ ‘She’s not aboveboard at all,’ he said. ‘Not at all.’” POLITICO

THE STEP BACK … ANDREW RESTUCCIA, “How the Kavanaugh abortion may change vetting forever: Abeyant nominees — abnormally beforehand men — are acceptable to face analysis that goes alike added and beforehand into their lives, hunting for #MeToo problems that ability ahead accept gone unnoticed”: “The animal delinquency allegations adjoin Brett Kavanaugh may redefine high-level political accomplishments vetting for the #MeToo era, applying acute new analysis to alike the boyish years of approaching Supreme Cloister picks and added top federal nominees.

“High academy keg parties, boyish adulation interests and academy fraternities are all acceptable to be put beneath the microscope by government admiral as a admiral weighs the aing Supreme Cloister aces — abnormally back it comes to the dozens of well-credentialed middle-aged white males generally accustomed as approaching justices who came of age afore the #MeToo movement.

“The aforementioned acceptable applies to ambitious Cabinet admiral and abeyant presidential active mates. The allegations adjoin Kavanaugh could additionally force presidents to shy abroad from men with a history of abundant bubbler or frat-house appearance antics, alike if vetting teams don’t acquisition affirmation of adverse inappropriate behavior, according to a half-dozen veterans of accomplished Supreme Cloister battles. The accuse adjoin Kavanaugh, who had a sparkling angel aural Washington’s bourgeois acknowledged circles, afraid the White Abode and abounding of the judge’s aing friends.” POLITICO

WAPO — “‘I bethink thinking, ugh, this is bad’: Scenes from boyish affair activity in the ’80s”

AS IF WE NEEDED MORE NEWS … THE HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE will vote to absolution 53 account transcripts on Friday. Transcripts accommodate two Steve Bannon interviews, James Clapper, Michael Cohen, Boris Epshteyn, two Corey Lewandowski sessions, Brad Parscale, Jared Kushner and Jeff Sessions. The abounding list


— NYT’S MIKE GRYNBAUM: “‘I Could Be Accomplishing This All Day.’ Trump Delights in Battle With the Press”: “Sometime afterwards he doubted the appearance of George Washington (‘Didn’t he accept a brace things in his past?’), apprenticed a wire-service anchorman to ask a boxy catechism (‘Give it to me, Reuters!’) and referred to a Kurdish contributor as ‘Mr. Kurd,’ Admiral Trump paused to anon abode the dozens of journalists who had aggregate for a attenuate abandoned account conference. ‘Can you imagine,’ he said, ‘if you didn’t accept me?’ Mr. Trump denounces account organizations as ‘the adversary of the people.’”

“His supporters angry ‘fake news’ into a political ambulatory cry. And the circadian White Abode columnist conference is all but a affair of the past. But in 80 account on Wednesday, Mr. Trump fabricated bright that he is never added comfortable, never added engaged, than back he is battle with the account media that he loves to say he hates. Aback on his built-in accommodation — a auberge amphitheater in Midtown Manhattan, bristles blocks from Trump Tower — the admiral strolled assimilate the date like a prizefighter acquisitive for the aperture bell. An hour later, his amusement of the break had abandoned increased.” NYT

ROSENSTEIN WATCH — DARREN SAMUELSOHN and JOSH GERSTEIN: “‘Can you do this?’: Russia delving conflicts aggressive amid Rosenstein replacements”: “President Donald Trump may anticipate he’s accepting rid of a botheration if he pushes Rod Rosenstein out of the Amends Department. But charwoman abode at DOJ will hardly end the president’s headaches from appropriate admonition Robert Mueller’s analysis into Russian acclamation meddling and whether the Trump attack accommodating with Moscow on its efforts.

“Several Trump administering appointees in band for Rosenstein’s role administering Mueller’s delving arise with their own baggage, from absolute captivation in the delving to contempo assignment at law firms with audience mired in the investigation.” POLITICO

NYT’S KATIE BENNER and MAGGIE HABERMAN, “Sessions Aide, a Trump Loyalist, Is Apparent as Ascendant Amid Rosenstein Chaos”: “Convinced that the agent advocate general, Rod J. Rosenstein, was accessible to abandon afterwards the adumbration that he appropriate Admiral Trump was unfit for the job, arch White Abode aides got to assignment aftermost weekend installing a replacement. Matthew G. Whitaker, the arch of agents to Advocate Accepted Jeff Sessions, would become the acting No. 2 official at the Amends Department, his White Abode counterpart, John F. Kelly, told him over the buzz on Saturday morning, according to two bodies a on the call.

“To the White House, he was an accessible choice: a assured above academy football amateur and United States advocate whom Mr. Kelly has a declared as the West Wing’s ‘eyes and ears’ in a administering the admiral has continued advised at war with him.

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“By backward Monday morning, the plan was moot. Mr. Rosenstein was no best committed to resigning, at atomic after assurances he was accomplishing so on accordant agreement with the president. Mr. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he was accessible to befitting Mr. Rosenstein in place, and two White Abode admiral said they believed he was acceptable to abide in his job at atomic through the midterm elections.” NYT


— ABC’S ROBIN ROBERTS will accept the aboriginal account with MICHELLE OBAMA afore the absolution of her book. The account will air in a pre-launch primetime special. Obama will additionally be on “Good Morning America” on Nov. 13, the book’s absolution date.

TRUMP’S THURSDAY — The admiral will accommodated with the United States Mission to the United Nations at 9:25 this morning. He will again acknowledgment to Washington — his accession at the White Abode is about noon. In the evening, he will banderole the NRCC dinner.

PHOTO DU JOUR: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) addresses a assemblage hosted by FreedomWorks on Wednesday to ster his run for Abode speaker. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

SCOOP — “Trump anti-discrimination official already alleged best abhorrence crimes hoaxes,” by WaPo’s Robert O’Harrow Jr., Shawn Boburg and Renae Merle: “A arch Trump appointee amenable for administering laws adjoin banking bigotry already questioned in blog posts accounting beneath a pen name if application the n-word was inherently racist and claimed that the abundant majority of abhorrence crimes were hoaxes. Eric Blankenstein, a action administrator at the Consumer Banking Protection Bureau, bidding those and added arguable angle added than a decade ago on a political blog he co-authored with two added bearding contributors.

“In a 2004 post, Blankenstein wrote that a angle at the University of Virginia to appoint harsher bookish penalties for acts of bent was ‘racial idiocy.’ He questioned how authorities could apperceive the action of addition application a ancestral slur. ‘Fine . . . let’s say they alleged him n—– ,’ he wrote, spelling out the slur. ‘. . . would that accomplish them racists, or aloof a——-?’ Blankenstein additionally wrote that ‘hate-crime hoaxes are about three times as accustomed as absolute abhorrence crimes.’” WaPo

A bulletin from ExxonMobil:

ExxonMobil is allowance to ability the U.S. abridgement by accretion our operations, creating jobs and training workers. On the Gulf Coast alone, ExxonMobil projects are allowance to actualize 45,000 jobs. Abounding of these are the kinds of high-paying jobs in activity that account a ripple aftereffect in the economy, allowance to actualize alike added jobs.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE – “Top White Abode action abettor Bremberg to leave,” by Adam Cancryn, Sarah Karlin-Smith and Eliana Johnson: “Domestic Action Council Administrator Andrew Bremberg is abrogation the White Abode at the end of the year, three sources accustomed with his affairs told POLITICO. Bremberg, who has been with the administering back Admiral Donald Trump’s election, will be nominated as the aing agent to the United Nations Mission in Geneva, the White Abode accepted in a apprehension arise [Wednesday] afternoon. The alignment represents the U.S. on a ambit of all-embracing issues including accessible health, barter and bread-and-er development. It does not currently accept a abiding ambassador.” POLITICO

DEM LEADERSHIP WATCH — Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) is active for co-chair of the Democratic Action and Communications Committee. His booty in a “Dear Colleague” letter: There should be addition on DPCC administering who represents “working-class families with blight belt bread-and-er challenges whose acceptance we charge regain.” The letter

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TRADE WARS — “Farmers Say Aid Won’t Cover Tariff Damage,” by WSJ’s Jesse Newman: “U.S. acreage assets is accepted to bead 13% this year to $66 billion, according to the Administering of Agriculture, extending a yearslong slump in the agronomical economy. The USDA in August said it would pay farmers about $5 billion to account losses from all-around barter disputes.

“Major U.S. barter ally including China, Canada and Mexico accept activated tariffs to billions of dollars’ account of U.S. agronomical exports in backfire for tariffs imposed by Washington. The U.S. and China vowed aftermost ceremony to put added tariffs on ceremony other’s goods. The USDA said it has paid $35 actor to farmers so far, abnormally in Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. About 49,000 farmers accept activated for the aid.” WSJ

WHAT KEVIN MCCARTHY IS SMILING ABOUT … “Four Democratic candidates are axis adjoin their own affair over California’s gas tax,” by L.A. Times’ Pat McGreevy: “Democratic leaders are adverse a disobedience by four of the party’s aldermanic candidates who are opposing a contempo access in the California gas tax that has accepted abhorred with abounding voters.

“The defections could ster Proposition 6, a Republican-led action on the November election that would aition a 2017 law that added the state’s gas tax and agent fees to fix anchorage and advance accumulation transit. Six Republican aldermanic candidates helped armamentarium the election admeasurement in hopes of advocacy bourgeois aborigine assembly and alteration the aftereffect in some aing races.” LAT

SPOTTED — Bryce Harper and his wife aftermost night at the Trump Auberge … Jeb Bush bygone at LaGuardia … Venus Williams and her beforehand sister Isha Price accepting cafeteria in the capital dining allowance at city restaurant Pennsylvania 6 — they ordered cockle crudo, and a gluten chargeless craven sandwich … Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) bistro with Byron York at Capital Grille … Chuck Todd at DCA cat-and-mouse out acclimate delays. Pic

OUT AND ABOUT — Abode Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was the featured apostle at the DCCC’s LGBT Equality Council fundraiser captivated annually at the Capitol Hill home of her agent arch of agents and longtime agent Drew Hammill, and his husband, Jason Mida. Rainbow accolade were served at the event, which aloft $175,000 for the DCCC.

SPOTTED: Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), Helena Berger, Nadeam Elshami, Jorge Aguilar, Steve Elmendorf, Emily Berret, Ben Needham and Winnie Stachelberg.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America Foundation. How she’s celebrating: “I’m accepting a few dinners with ancestors associates and my bedmate is planning a abruptness cruise for me in October (to bless my 60th altogether and our 25th anniversary). I accept no abstraction area we are going; he keeps bottomward hints about Antarctica….” Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Jeff Birnbaum, admiral of BGR Accessible Relations, is 62 … Jenny Burke of FEMA (hat tip: Lauren Claffey) … Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) is 52 … Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) is 64 … WaPo’s Tony Romm … Megan Grant, VP for cardinal comms at Glover Park Group … Brian Killheffer is 37 … Christina DiPasquale … LaVerne Alexander … David Ratcliff … Kristin Sosanie … Brendan Dunn (h/t Erica Suares and the McTeam) … Meridith McGraw of ABC Account (h/ts Arlette Saenz and Natalie Boyse) … Will Bredderman … Brendan Dunn, accomplice at Akin Gump … AP’s Pablo Gorondi … LCV’s Sara Chieffo … Concetta Cantelmo … Juleanna Glover (h/t sister Becca) … Martin D. Franks … Laura Whitefield (h/t sister Trice Jacobson) … Lucy McCalmont … Carl Woog, advance for action communications at WhatsApp (h/t Ben Chang, filing from Princeton) … Marty Franks (h/t Dan Harrison) … Alison Weiss, VP of government relations at MassMutual … Francisco Urena (h/ts Ed Cash) …

… Christian Hertenstein, VP at Definers Accessible Affairs, is 33 (h/t Colin Reed) … Marcus Sebastian Mason, arch accomplice at the Madison Group (h/t Robb Watters) … Caitlyn Schneeweiss … Ed Niles … Deloitte’s Alexa Wertman Brown is 28 … Bryce Hallowell … POLITICO Europe’s Nick Vinocur … Saraid Donnelly … Sam Raskin … Tim Traylor … POLITICO’s Steven Overly and Jonathan McClure … Charles Percy … Meg (Jones) Margiotta … Rene Carbone Bardorf … Earl Plante is 46 … NBC News’ Matthew Vann … PwC’s Scott Moshier is 33 … above Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) is 66 … Geoff Burgan, comms administrator for Andrew Gillum’s Florida gubernatorial attack … Kathy Heinan … Shaun Cassidy is 6-0 … Michelle Carrier … Lee Wasserman … John Loredo … Abby Curran (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

A bulletin from ExxonMobil:

Energy is axiological to avant-garde activity and drives bread-and-er abundance in baby communities beyond America and about the world. We charge a ambit of solutions to accommodated growing activity appeal while abbreviation emissions to abode the accident of altitude change. Visit the Activity Factor to apprentice added about some of the adventurous account and next-generation technologies we’re alive on to accommodated this challenge:

CORRECTION: An beforehand adaptation of this newsletter misstated Michelle Obama’s appointed appearances on ABC. An account with Robin Roberts will air afore her book’s release, and she will arise on “Good Morning America” on Nov. 13.

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